U.S. Crude-Oil Inventories Expected to Slightly Increase

According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are expected to have a slight increase from the previous week in data from the Energy Department due Wednesday.

Crude Stockpiles

In the average of estimates from ten analysts and traders, commercial crude stockpiles rose by 400,000 barrels for the week ended Oct. 13. Four of the forecasters are predicting a decrease, while six are expecting an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 5 million barrels.

Gasoline Inventories

The survey predicts that gasoline inventories are expected to decline by 600,000 barrels. Estimates range from a decrease of 3.4 million barrels to an increase of 1.7 million barrels.

Distillates Stock

Stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, are expected to decrease by 1.2 million barrels. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.1 million barrels.

Refinery Use

Refinery use is likely to have fallen by 0.1 percentage point, to 85.6%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 1 percentage point to an increase of 1 percentage point. One analyst didn't make a forecast.

Summary of Forecasts

Here is a summary of the forecasts provided by various analysts:

| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |------------------------------|-------|----------|-------------|--------------| | Again Capital | -2.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | | Commodity Research Group | 1.8 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.8 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt | -3 | -2.5 | -2 | 1 | | DTN | 1.4 | -0.25 | -1.2 | Unchanged | | Excel Futures | 3.6 | -3.4 | -2 | -0.6 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.4 | -1.6 | -2.5 | No Forecast | | Mizuho | 3 | 1 | -1 | -0.7 | | Price Futures Group | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0.5 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -2.2 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -1.0 | | Tradition Energy | 5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | No Forecast | | AVERAGE | 0.4 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.1 |

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.